Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

Microsoft After Bill

Wednesday, May 25th, 2011 Mike Ficco

In 1998 I was working at a company that had tens of thousands of customers.  Like most companies, they dreamed of having tens of millions of customers.  The most significant impediment to their goal of mass-market acceptance was the futuristic application of their primary product.

In 1998, the Internet was still a baby, new PCs were made from the Pentium II, and less than half of them had CD readers.  It was this year, this company, and these circumstances that revealed to me the secret of Microsoft’s early success.

My company’s software had grown too big to fit on a single floppy.  It required three (3).  In 1998 Internet delivery of the software wasn’t even considered by my boss.  Considered, but rejected by the CEO, was delivery on a CD.  He didn’t want to lose access to over half the PCs by requiring a CD reader.  To put this in perspective, the company had less than 50,000 customers and the CEO decided that access to 20 or 30 or 40 million potential customer was just not enough.  He demanded a bigger pool.

The unfortunate consequence of his decision was the delivery of this futuristic product was being dumbed-down to retain compatibility with old PCs.  Here was a product, most likely to be attractive to “early adopters”, but it was being crippled by the antiquated image of having to repeatedly swap floppies to install it.

It was during this time that I started thinking about how Microsoft did things.  Bill Gates seemed to not care about under-powered and feature-poor PCs.  So what if the customer’s current PC was too weak to provide a good user experience, or perhaps too anemic to work at all with his new software?  Unlike most corporate leaders, Bill saw the future and didn’t wait for the world to catch up.

His approach, and it worked very well, was to provide desirable features and functionality attractive to the early adopters.  They in turn went out and bought new PCs so they could get maximum enjoyment from the new software.  In the process Bill as the CEO, from memory and very brief research, led Microsoft to something like a 10x stock price gain from when it went public in 1986 until he stepped down as CEO in 2000.  At that time the Microsoft stock price was about $45.  Here we are in 2011 and the stock is about $25.

This isn’t to malign the leadership that followed Bill – only to encourage them to do better.  Yes, Bill was good but without him Microsoft has needlessly become a follower.  In a sense, they worry they may lose customers by requiring a CD reader.  They’ve come to believe others are more innovative.  As a result they look to acquire web search technology, cloud anything, Skype, etc.  I don’t remember Microsoft creating any new market or ground-breaking technology since Bill stepped down.  Worse, and now we get to the reason for this blog, they are doing just plain stupid things.

Example 1:  Windows Explorer search

Have you tried searching for anything with the Vista or Windows 7 versions of Windows Explorer?  I first encountered this nonsense a few years ago on Vista.  Windows XP search was just fine.  You give it a full or partial file name and tell it what to look for inside the files that match – simple, easy, and it worked.  On Vista, there didn’t seem to be a way to tell the search to look inside the files.  After poking for quite a while and web searching I figured out how to force Explorer to look inside files.  Unfortunately, I never figured out how to specify file names so some searches became very painfully long as the search looked inside every file no matter how big or irrelevant.

Amazingly, they didn’t fix this in Windows 7.  Last week I was doing a search for a file but I just couldn’t find it.  I assumed I just remembered the content incorrectly.  Later, I found the file for which I was searching – and the content was as I remembered it.

Huh???

I went back and searched again.  Knowing where to look, Explorer could not find the file.  This file was standard ASCII text (in fact it was Python code).  I could see the text in Notepad and I could see the text in Eclipse.  Hummmmm?  Maybe I have to turn on Windows indexing?  So I tried that and it corrupted my Subversion project files and I had to reinstall the entire project.  Grrrr!!!

Summary

Hey Microsoft guys.  I’ve been using computers for over 30 years.  I’ve used more operating systems and file systems than you ever heard of – from Intel’s RMX, Univac, DEC’s RSX, Unix, Linux, DOS, Mac, and EVERY version of Windows ever made…

AND, after HOURS of playing…

I can’t figure out how to use the new Windows Explorer search.  This is a bad, BAD product.  Fix it!  And while you are doing that, put BACK the ability to tell the search file names to look in so I can help narrow the search.

Example 2:  The Windows 7 calculator.

What the HELL were you thinking?  Some time ago I was working on a record structure that had 16 bit binary time stamps.  Using the Windows 7 calculator in hex mode, I was converting the binary number to decimal seconds, then dividing by 60 to get the minutes.  After several records I was surprised they were all evenly dividing by 60.  After several more I became doubtful and actually started to look at the numbers instead of blindly typing.  Imagine my surprise when I discovered that the Microsoft calculator didn’t work!  In what crazy universe does it make since to force the “programmer” view of a decimal calculator to ignore decimals?  You do know that sometimes programmers use these things called floating point numbers, right?  You know, programmers don’t always use integers, right?

To do my binary seconds to minutes conversion, and see the result was not an even multiple of 60, I had to save each value and toggle to the “standard” view to do the division – then toggle back to the programmer view for each record.

Have you guys ever tried to use this?

BAD – BAD – BAD!!!

Fix it!!!

 

Infrared Photovoltaics Could Solve Energy and Climate

Thursday, March 31st, 2011 Mike Ficco

It may not be possible to overhype new infrared photovoltaic technology. It’s basically a solar cell powered by excess heat. Further developments promise to power cars and factories by cooling the planet.

Albert Einstein was first to describe the photoelectric effect, in 1907.  He was awarded the Nobel Prize for this work in 1923.  Briefly, the photoelectric effect occurs when a photon smacks into a substance and frees an electron.  When this happens regularly, an electric current is produced.  All solar cells are based on this phenomenon.  For many years visionaries have projected solar cells as the clean energy source of the future.  It looks like they may be right, but not in the way they expected.

Energy from Heat

Working together, Katzumi Suzuki of the Nipon Engineering Institute and Shrinavas Patel of the Engineering Foundation of Bombay reported in the Journal of Thermodynamic Physics that they created a successful experiment in which they lowered the photon energy needed to create the photoelectric effect to under one electron volt.  Such a low energy corresponds to a photoelectric “threshold frequency” in the infrared part of the spectrum.  In practical terms this means that solar cells made with their patented proprietary process are capable of producing electricity from infrared energy (i.e., heat).

Katzumi and Shrinavas report that today they can only achieve about 11% efficiency, but they hope to boost that to perhaps 18% within the next decade (their paper calculates a theoretical limit of 21.7%).  They are working to manufacture and sell one meter wide rolls of thin, flexible solar cell material of various widths and lengths.  No price has been quoted.

The amount of electricity generated is non-linear with temperature and, with the existing process, generation of electricity cannot be achieved at temperatures below -10 degrees Fahrenheit.  The Journal of Thermodynamic Physics noted that one square meter of material generated in the dark (i.e., no visible light) about 15 Watts at the freezing point and about 60 Watts at room temperature.  This means that a shirt made from this material could power a smartphone indefinitely from your own body heat.  A car covered in this material could drive for nearly 600 miles in an Arizona summer night.

Global Cooling

Perhaps the most important part of this discovery is its potential application in the field of climate change.  There are hints this technology could be used to cool global warming by transferring the surplus heat into charged batteries. Additional details can be found in the just published journal article.

What’s Wrong With Home Security?

Tuesday, March 15th, 2011 Mike Ficco

After living in my house for 22 years my illusion of security was shattered.  Three high school kids created a mini-crime spree, breaking into something like a dozen houses in my generally good neighborhood.  With squad cars roaming the streets and police helicopters overhead the group broke into their third house that day – mine.  They were caught but made a general mess of my place and a number of missing items were never recovered.  OK – fine…  Time to close the barn door after the horse escaped.  I need a security system.

Quick research taught me that, something like cell phone hardware and the phone company that provides the service, there is the security hardware and, separately, there is the company that provides the monitoring service.  I called one of the security companies and discussed my needs with an extremely well spoken woman who suggested I schedule an installation.  She offered that I was lucky to have called because they were in the middle of a major promotion.  She waived installation fees and gave me several free sensors.  She introduced me to her manager and made sure I was getting all the discounts available.  Cool, I thought, and was very impressed.

A few days later the installation technician showed up.  He removed his shoes before entering my house – another example of quality employees and good training, I thought.  Things took a negative turn, however, when I understood some equipment needed to be installed at the point where my phone line enters the house.  That was very inconvenient since doing so would require removing a cabinet and cutting into drywall.  The technician explained that the module needed to be installed at the point where the line enters the house and would not work correctly if simply connect to one of my many phone jacks.  Well, said I, that would have been good to know before we scheduled this appointment…

The technician pressed on and suggested an upgraded glass break detector.  He said the one I was to receive for free was not very reliable.  Finally, he suggested we upgrade to the GSM module so we would not need the home phone line to report a problem.  Using the GSM module would circumvent the need to use the home phone line – but unfortunately would add $10 per month in monitoring fees.  I decided to cancel the installation but the technician would hear none of that.  He insisted on putting me down for another appointment to “give me a chance to think about it”.

A couple of days later I called the company to cancel the new appointment.  What a change.  I was magically transported to a used car lot where I found myself apparently talking to a used car salesman – or at least it seemed that way.  They didn’t want to hear about canceling the appointment.  Wasn’t I aware of the crime statistics?  Didn’t I want my family to be safe?  I could have the GSM hardware for free (but NO discount on the monitoring).  On and on this continued and became difficult.  Eventually, I successfully cancelled the appointment.

What was I to do now?  I wanted a security system but didn’t want my wall damaged and didn’t want to pay extra fees.  I thought about the problem…

 

WAIT!!

Isn’t a home security system simply an embedded system with a remote connection?  Haven’t I worked for years on embedded systems that communicate via the Internet?  Don’t I have a perfectly good wireless LAN in my house?  Why can’t the security system just connect to my wireless LAN and handle all communication needs through the Internet?  I walked around my house and made a list of what I actually wanted and started calling security companies.

Oh my!  The world of security companies does not deal well with a customer that specifies what they want.  The business model of most of the companies seems based on some very simple principles:

  • Sell fear
  • Sell the 24 hour monitoring service
  • Avoid discussing details

Maybe I just had some bad luck, but I ran into very deceptive statements and practices.  I eventually DID get a security system and that salesman and the installation technician were very professional.  However, my brief experience in this area tells me the home security industry is well behind the technology curve and desperately needs to be dragged into the future.

The home monitoring companies have an extraordinarily profitable business model and, from a technology perspective, are years behind.  It seems to me the days of this business model are numbered.

 

How Utility Outages SHOULD Be Handled

Monday, February 21st, 2011 Mike Ficco

Earlier (How to Reduce Electric Utility Outages), I promised to provide a short engineering specification of how a utility might better inform the public of repair progress during an outage.  What I describe following will not only inform the public but could also help solidify good management practices within the utility.  Improvement in management practices seems likely to translate directly into better customer service through more rapid repairs.

Management Experience

As an experienced engineering manager I know you can’t always predict how long work will take.  However, my direct engineering experience has been that predictions become MUCH more reliable if the work is broken down into discrete and well-defined steps.  Even more important is to then arrange the steps into a sequence that builds on intermediate results and optimizes usage of the available resources.  In short, success comes more readily with a complete and detailed plan.

My experience has also been that making the detailed plan available for review, critique, and comment often results in an even better and more highly optimized plan.  Such review allows for the inclusion of missed steps and for correction of operational sequences that had not been fully considered.

It is without question that ad hoc direction of maintenance crews is far less efficient than having a comprehensive multi-step plan with a well-defined series of steps and an estimate of the time to complete each of these steps.

Therefore:

The utility must have such a plan.  If they have no such plan – they should and must be required to produce one for each significant outage.  Managers must either be trained or replaced until such an obviously needed basic component of good service is instinctively created and used for every major outage.  Note: Inexperienced managers sometimes argue against taking the time to produce a detailed plan.  They may say it is only delaying the start of repairs.  Wrong.  It has been proven over and over that, for major work, a good plan more than repays the time invested in producing it.

Good Management Practices:

  • It is good management and a demonstration of foresight to produce a couple of plans in advance of the emergency.
  • When the emergency occurs, it should only take minutes to select a relevant preexisting plan and “tweak” it for the current circumstances.
  • There is no reason the plan produced in the first half hour has to be the final plan.  Don’t be afraid to enhance it as the emergency progresses and more facts are learned.
  • Make use of the experience gained during each emergency and adjust the preexisting plans to be even better for the next emergency.

Since it is the job of the Public Utility Commission to oversee the utilities, they would be negligent if they did not insist on reviewing the preexisting plans.  They should also insist on participating in post-emergency plan reviews.

It is incontrovertible that a plan must exist to guide repairs for every major outage.  The question becomes how should this plan be made available to the public.  I believe a spreadsheet or Gantt chart would be highly inappropriate.  Instead, I proposed a graphic web page.

Requirements:

  1. The basic web page shall be a map of the region.
  2. It shall be possible to zoom the map from a high-level view of the entire region to individual street level.
  3. The utility grid shall be superimposed on the map.
  4. The utility grid shall be color coded as follows:
    • Green – Represents the portions of the utility grid known to be working correctly.
    • Gray – Indicates sections of the grid that have an unknown state.
    • Yellow – These sections are not functioning correctly but are currently under repair.
    • Orange – These sections are not functioning correctly and are next in line for repair.
    • Red – Represents the sections of the utility grid not working and not scheduled for repair in the immediate future.
  5. The current time of day shall be presented.
  6. The time of day the page data was last updated shall be presented.
  7. The page data shall be updated AT LEAST once an hour (update every 15 minutes is preferred).
  8. The average time in minutes that trucks/crews have been on their current assignments shall be presented.
  9. The number of currently working trucks/crews shall be presented.
  10. The number of trucks/crews on break or pending assignment shall be presented.
  11. In a major outage, a number of trucks/crews will likely be requested from neighboring jurisdictions.  Each group of requested trucks/crews shall be treated as a discrete block.  For each such block:
    • The source shall be named and the number of trucks/crews requested shall be indicated.
    • The expected arrival time shall be indicated along with the number of hours since the request was issued.
  12. For all the blocks in #11, the total number of all trucks/crews that have been requested from neighboring jurisdictions but have not yet arrived shall be presented.
  13. It shall be possible for the public to provide feedback on the emergency plan and its implementation.  This feedback shall be archived and made available to the Public Utilities Commission upon demand.

Epitaph

Over my two blogs on public utilities I’ve described a three-step process for improving the reliability and accountability of the system:

  1. Stop blaming your outages on Acts of God and start doing regular preventive maintenance and infrastructure improvements.  If you claim you have already been doing so, clearly your efforts have been inadequate and need to be improved.
  2. Prepare emergency plans and post these for review and comment.
  3. Create a regularly updated (perhaps as often as every 15 minutes) web site that shows the current state of repairs.  This is certainly needed during an emergency – but why not do it every day?

Maybe we can finally stop hearing promises and actually have utility company executives earn their bonuses not by “saving money” but by providing the reliable service implied by their social contract with the community.

How to Reduce Electric Utility Outages

Wednesday, February 16th, 2011 Mike Ficco

A couple of weeks ago we had a heavy, wet snow that took down many trees and in the process interrupted power for a significant number of people.  By some estimates nearly 300,000 households, businesses, and schools in the metropolitan Washington D.C. area lost power for the better part of a day.  At the time, there were a number of news reports comparing the power situation to that of a third-world country.  In addition, there were many disturbing reports of inadequately staffed call centers and, therefore, difficulty in reporting dangerous situations like live power lines on the ground.

Background

The power company responsible for the majority of the outages was already under the microscope.  They seemed to have a several year history of reliability problems and just last year a major snowstorm caused long outages for many of their customers.  When extended outages occurred again, there was a not too surprising customer outcry followed quickly by a great deal of posturing by both the power company and politicians.

… but that was weeks ago …

The reporting and talking continues.  Hearings are being held.  Excuses and promises are being made and made again. Enough.

Engineering Observations

Time to make some “engineering” observations. I experience first-hand both last year’s and this year’s extended power outages.  I was extremely irritated BOTH times when the power company blamed the outage on an “act of God”.  I disagree with that assessment.  Getting hit by a meteor – now that’s and act of God.  Getting snow in the winter just doesn’t seem to qualify as an act of God.  Furthermore, if you are genuinely surprised to get snow and ice during a Washington D.C. winter, you probably shouldn’t be allowed to be in charge of anything important.

Here is some further insight into this “act of God”:  both last year and this year, ALL my other utilities continued working after the power failed.  That would be my gas, water, sewage, telephone, and cable TV.  That is, my 5 other utilities performed significantly better than my power company.  So much for an act of God…

The good news for the most recent extended outage was that it was cold outside.  Since we don’t have any bears and coyotes in the area we could save some of the content of our refrigerator by putting it outside.  The bad news was that it was cold outside and we had no heat.  To be clear, my furnace and hot water heater are gas powered.  We had gas and we had water.  We had hot water.  We had no heat since the furnace blower required the conspicuously absent electricity to heat the house.  Fortunately, I had a fireplace and firewood.  We slept on the floor in front of the fireplace.  The furnace thermostat hit 52 degrees and on the second night without power I considered letting the faucets drip to prevent the pipes from freezing.

One (at least one) of the local radio stations periodically aired listener comments on the situation.  Most were outraged, but there was the occasional defender of the power company.  EVERYONE appreciated the efforts of the front line workers who risked their lives in the cold weather and dangerous conditions.  However, in my opinion, any comment that excused the power company from blame was very wrong to the point of being irresponsible.  Some comments went so far as to call people soft or whiners and told them to get tough or buy a generator.  Again, no one wants to diminish the contributions of the maintenance staff who worked so diligently to get power back on.  BUT it is unacceptable to do or say anything that excuses the executives who, for the last 20 or 30 years, “saved” money and presumably reaped large bonuses by minimizing regular maintenance and infrastructure improvements.

Calling those who complain about having no power “whiners” should have no place in any legitimate conversation.  It deflects accountability from the inability of the power company to fulfill the social contract at the basis of their very existence.  This is a public utility.  As such, the public cannot “vote with their feet” and select another company to deliver power to their home.  In return for being awarded this monopoly, the power company is expected to reliably deliver power – not blame God or repeatedly promise to get better.

I’ve worked for several companies that cut corners or skimped on design, implementation, or testing time in order to save money.  Of course the intention was not so much saving money as boosting profits.  My experience has been that these attempts usually backfire because customers don’t buy the junk that results from such cutting of corners.  That is, backfires for the company.  Many of my previous employers no longer exist.  Along the way, however, some executives got rich because of poorly (for the company) structured bonus plans.  Some also profited handsomely by selling hyped corporate stock before reality came crashing down.

Retail companies with competitors are very different from public utilities.  Those who manage public utilities have a social responsibility to provide quality service to their customers.  The politicians who oversee the utilities, therefore, have a responsibility to their constituents to insure bonus plans, maintenance schedules, infrastructure improvements, etc. are in line with the end goal of providing quality service.  If a public utility does not provide quality service, either due to ineptitude or malicious intent of its managers, those managers should be banned for life from involvement with any public utility.

But enough about managing a company to provide reliable service…

How to Reduce Electric Utility Outages

At some point, customers of even the best managed power company will lose service.  In my situation, both last year and this year, the power company was not able to – or was unwilling to – give us any realistic idea when power would come back on.  This year they made a blanket statement of “11:00 Saturday night”.  In my book (What Every Engineer Should Know About Career Management) I call this “big bang scheduling” and I assert that big bang scheduling is unacceptable.  A schedule with specific milestones is vastly superior because you can easily tell when implementers start to fall behind schedule or when events take an unexpected turn.  Either the power company was completely inept or they wanted to hide from the public when they were going off plan or off schedule.

During an outage, somewhere inside the gigantic power company people make decisions about what neighborhoods get worked on in what order.  If the power company doesn’t have a map of their power grid with known failures highlighted, they certainly should.  How could they hope to work in an efficient fashion without such an annotated grid?  I propose that all power companies… NAY!  All public utilities… be required to host an outage web site.  This should be a graphic presentation of the very same data used by the utility to schedule work.

I hear the power company now!  We can’t do that.  It’s too much work, etc.  Malarkey!  They BETTER be privately doing something like this already if they hope to repair damage in anything remotely resembling an efficient sequence of activity.  Graphically presenting this information to the public would accomplish two incredibly important objectives:

  • Homeowners could track the progress of work and see where their neighborhood was in the sequence of repairs.  They could then make educated decisions about emptying the refrigerator or checking into a hotel.
  • The public could critique the power company’s allocation or resources and staging of repairs.  The utility would probably dread such critique, but only because they are inept.  If done well, a public display of effective and efficient repairs could provide a wonderful boost of confidence that utility payments are being well spent.

My power company, unfortunately, reminds me of some of my former employers.  Unlike those, however, I can’t just leave in hopes of finding a better situation.  I’m stuck with these guys until the public utility commission wakes from their coma and learns enough about engineering to properly oversee the power company and properly align the thinking of the utility executives.  To help this process, in a future blog I will provide a short engineering specification of the outage web site concept presented above.

Done!   See How Utility Outages SHOULD Be Handled